Methodology

Who produced emissions data

The SEEG is sponsored by the Climate Observatory (OC).

Four institutions selected by the OC coordinated the technical process of generation of the estimates:

– Imazon (land use change) www.imazon.org.br

– Imaflora (agriculture) – www.imaflora.org

– IEMA (energy and process industries) – www.energiaeambiente.org.br

– ICLEI (waste) – www.iclei.org.br

Avina and Fundação Getúlio Vargas Foundation provide organizational support.

This initiative receives funding from the following organizations: OAK Foundation, Skol Foundation, Fundación Avina, Institute Climate and Society and Climate (ICs) and Land Use Alliance.

How the estimations are produced

The SEEG estimations, updated in 2015, cover the GHG emissions in the period 1970-2014 for all sectors, except for land use change, covering the period from 1990 to 2014.

The methodological basis of the estimates of SEEG is the Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases, published by Ministry of Science and Technology (MCTI). For the Agricultural, Energy, Industrial Processes and Waste sectors SEEG used 3rd Inventory methodology which underwent public consultation in 2014/2015 and is awaiting publication. As for Land Use Change was followed by the second Inventory methodology since without the publication of land cover transition maps It’s not possible to migrate to the new methodology.

Without the official inventories and their reference reports would not be possible to develop this initiative, since the vast majority of specific emission factors were calculated in drawing up the inventory process by teams of dozens of institutions, and involving hundreds of researchers and experts.

Preparation of estimates step by step

For each sector it was assembled a calculation routine to reproduce the work from the inventory for each of the reported years (eg. 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005). Then, the data sought activity which allow to estimate the evolution of emission considering the inventory emission factors. Dozens of public and private institutions to gain access to activity data were consulted.

To ensure the possibility of repeated estimates calculated by any interested party, it was defined as policy of SEEG to relay only used data from public and free of charge, including data available over the internet or in public libraries.

When activity data were not available or were incomplete, various strategies were used to obtain the estimates, including the search for benchmarks, trend lines, correlated with data from other activities, among others.

Each team spent the following basic steps:

  1. Review of the IPCC methodology and Inventory, including reading all reference reports prepared for the 2nd and 3rd national inventory.
  1. Decomposition of the 2nd and 3rd Inventory tables to understand and test the form of application of emission factors. In the process, the sheets were redone and systems for calculating, using the data base of the inventory in order to replicate data in accordance with the description of the methodological reference reports.
  1. Activity data collection and update components for emission factors. The goal was to get the updated information whenever possible, close to the same sources the 2nd and 3rd inventory.
  1. Identification of data gaps and defining auxiliary calculation formulas to filling the gaps. Which lacked the data needed to use the emission factor in the original format, were used auxiliary emission factors, often through analysis of emission correlation and level of activity, based on the inventory data. This phase also set the emissions allocation criteria for the states.
  1. Presentation and validation of the methodology and data in three technical seminars, conducted with experts and technicians of the Climate Observatory-member institutions, in order to review the various stages of work.
  1. Review and analysis of data quality. Finally, all data were evaluated according to the quality of emission factors and activity data used. Some points were identified that need to be improved in future surveys, including a review of methods and data by experts from different sectors.

Allocation by states and the Federal District

Since version 2.0, released in 2014, SEEG includes the allocation of emission estimates for states and the Federal District, where possible. For 2014, it was possible to make the allocation of about 95% of Brazilian emissions by states and the Federal District. Only 5% of emissions were not allocated.

For the allocation of emissions units of the Federation, they are used as reference emissions-generating activities (eg. deforestation, consumption of fuels for transportation, industrial production etc.). Methodological notes detail how the allocation was generated in each item of estimated emissions.

Estimates include emissions of all gases foreseen in inventories including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), which together account for over 99% of emissions in carbon equivalent (CO2e), and others like HFCs.

GWP or GTP?

There are two main approaches for determining the carbon equivalent: GWP (Global Warming Potential) and GTP (Global Temperature Change Potential). The first considers the influence of the gases in changing the Earth’s energy balance and the second, the influence on temperature rise. Both are measured for a period of 100 years, and most commonly used is GWP.

For example, one ton of methane (CH4) is 21 tons of carbon equivalent (CO2e) GWP or 5 tonnes of CO2e GTP. The table below shows the equivalence between the greenhouse gases included in the estimates of this study.

In this study, data is presented in CO2e GWP. In the database available on the OC SEEG portal can be found all the data also CO2e GTP.

Tabela: Equivalência em carbono GWP e GTP

Gás GTP-100 GWP-100
CO2

1

1

CH4

5

21

N2O

270

310

HFC-125

1.113

2.800

HFC – 134a

55

1.300

HFC – 143a

4.288

3.800

HFC – 152a

0

140

CF4

10.052

6.500

C2F6

22.468

9.200

SF6

40.935

23.900

Emissions Gross, Net and emissions of Maritime and International Air emissions (Bunkers)

Estimates of gross emissions of greenhouse gases do not consider the carbon dioxide removal by land use changes, unless is inventory year.

The IPCC guidelines for national inventories indicate that all anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases should be included in the inventory. In the Brazilian inventory, in addition to considering forest restoration, regeneration of pastures and others like carbon pools, it also considered anthropogenic carbon stocks increases in natural forests when located in protected areas or indigenous lands. This removal represented 92% of the total removal recorded in the inventory and in the 2010 estimates, published in 2013 by MCTI.

In fact, unprotected forests can capture CO2, if they are in the natural renewal process, as well as forests in protected areas may emit CO2 if they are in the process of degradation. By the sheer volume that can represent – almost 400 million tons of CO2, or 30% of current emissions – This setting creates a distortion in the emissions data.

From a conservative approach, the OC option was to prioritize the dissemination of SEEG data with gross emissions. Thus, unless otherwise mentioned, all data presented here refer to gross emissions of greenhouse gases. In the query in the internet database are available also the removal estimates according to the criteria used in the 2nd Brazilian emission inventory. With this data on removals it is possible to estimate the net GHG emissions in Brazil.

The estimations of SEEG did not incorporated the discount by emission reduction certificates originating from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The total in Brazil in the period 2005-2014, amount to about 370 million tons of CO2e (accumulated period).

Finally it was also calculated separately (available for consultation on the website of the database) the data of emissions from international maritime transport and air that, as a rule, should be reported separately because they relate to emissions responsible for more than one country . These data are processed in the database as “bunker” or international issues.

Emissions by different sectoral arrangements

Total emissions of greenhouse gases are computed in this study in five sectors defined by the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) for national inventories .

In order to get a more accurate picture and complete the representation of certain sectors of the economy it was held an organizational pilot distribution fo the emissions for different sectors / economic activities.